My Latest Post at New Geography: Revisiting Toronto’s G20 Costs

Originally posted at New Geography, and picked up by the National Post.

In the lead up to the G20 conference, the security costs were projected to approach a billion dollars. As high as this number sounds, sources are now speculating that the total bill could be closer to $2 billion. Shocking as that number is, the costs incurred by local businesses may have exceeded that total.

In addition to the physical damage to the hundreds of shops that were smashed in, there were major productivity losses during, and in the week before the conference. The most visible opportunity cost was the sharp decline in retail sales...(continue reading)

Toronto G20 Conference: A View From The Wreckage

Here are my observations from this year's G20 conference in Toronto. I have inserted as little political commentary as possible, opting instead to share my personal experience.



June 25th, 2010



10:51 PM

I arrive in Toronto to a surprisingly vacant parking lot on the Esplanade, in the heart of Toronto's bustling financial district.










10:56 PM

Quietest Friday night I've ever seen in Toronto. Barely a soul out in the usually packed financial district.










2:12 AM

On the way back to my lodgings, I pass by the French delegation's bus. The hotel workers had been on strike for the previous few days. The hotel company is owned by a French company, so they decided to go on strike while the French delegation was there as a bargaining tactic. The picketers left hours before my arrival.






2:14 AM

The Esplanade is conspicuously devoid of returning bar goers.












June 26th, 2010



10:39 AM

I arrived a few minutes after a scheduled keynote speaker at Allen Gardens that I heard about on Twitter. The tent town built by protesters has already been broken up, and its occupants dispersed.








10:40 AM

The speaker went on anyways, with a small crowd. I was told there would be a 1:00 PM rally at the Provincial Legislature, Queen's Park.










10:56 AM

In the meantime, I headed to Bay Street, the heart of Canada's financial district. I figured if there were pre-rally disruptions, they would be here.









11:04 AM

All's quiet at Queen's Park. I decided to walk down to the security barrier surrounding the Metro Toronto Convention Centre, where the summit was being held.









11:11 AM

The Art Gallery of Ontario was one of the many high profile venues that closed for the conference. Mirvish cancelled all of their shows, including the high profile Rock of Ages musical. The Blue Jays were also forced to move 3 home games to Philadelphia.







11:18 AM

University Avenue. One of Toronto's busiest streets. Empty.











11:29 AM

Arrival at the Security barrier. A few officers hanging around, but surprisingly quiet.











11:30 AM

The police decided to use tightly meshed chain link fences to make climbing the barriers extremely difficult. I used a Canadian bill for scale, which may be slightly deceptive to Americans (since our bills are slightly shorter, and wider). It still appeared to be somewhat climbable, but I didn't dare test my theory.






11:36 AM

I caught the subway at Osgoode station to head back to Queen's Park. It was quieter than it usually is at 1 AM on a Sunday.










11:55 AM

A scene from the University of Toronto, which was also closed for the conference.











12:06 PM

The people in orange hats are the legal representation for the protesters. They're prepping for a long day.










12:10 PM

Queen's Park begins to fill up with all of the usual suspects. Union activists, environmentalists, and anti-war protesters seemed to be the bulk of the crowd.









12:30 PM

Things seemed quiet, so we decided to go for lunch. When I saw Greepeace approaching, I knew it wouldn't be quiet much longer...










12:34 PM

...and then I saw people in their midst who appeared to be Black Bloc anarchists. They are notorious for their role in the Seattle WTO protests of 1999, where they caused major property destruction. Given that they show up to protests specifically to attack corporate buildings, I had to stay close by.






12:43 PM

Things got pretty busy at Queen's Park. Despite the rain, an estimate put the crowd at 5000.











12:48 PM

A crowd protesting the Ethiopian genocide filled the streets of Queen's Park. I told my photographer not to worry about them. They had nothing to gain from being violent. Spoiler: I was right.








1:00 PM

The Queen's Park subway station. Moments after this photo, I was told that this stop, among others was closed. First sign that the police were prepared to funnel the crowd down University Avenue, to avoid anyone getting to Bay Street. Given the number of anti-bank banners, this was probably wise.






1:14 AM

A frustrated streetcar driver looks on as protesters and police shut down University Avenue. Combined with the subway closure, passengers has little option but to wait for the march to end. I have no idea when this streetcar was actually up and running again.







1:41 PM

The demonstrators have now officially shut down University Avenue. Frustrated motorists driving south on University are stuck for minutes on end, trying to plow through the crowd.









1:56 PM

The crowd continues south on University. They are flanked on either side by police. I instructed my photographer to stay as far north as the police. The last thing I wanted was to get caught with police and protesters on either side. I wanted to maintain an exit strategy.







2:26 PM

After a long march south, the protesters are all funnelled to the east side of the street. This bolstered my theory that the police were trying to contain the protests between Queen's Park and the barrier. A classic pincer formation.








2:37 PM

My first sighting of riot police.












2:45 PM

I was proven wrong. Rather than contain the crowds (which would lead to immediate confrontation), the police formed a human funnel to shunt the protesters west on Queen Street. They were betting that dispersing protesters towards bohemian West Queen West would give them fewer targets. Given that they decided to use dispersment, rather than containment as their strategy, this was not unreasonable.




2:47 PM

The view from Queen West. Seems remarkably quiet. Few protesters left in sight.











2:55 PM

A little bit of hipster irony. This was going to be my caption photo had there been no destruction. Clever stunt, I must say.

I chatted with some riot police to see if anything had happened. No reports of violence. I decided that nothing was going to happen just yet. I began heading east to meet a friend at a pub. As I reached University, I noticed the police were once again blockading. I was talking to bicycle police, and pointed out that that the riot police one street south were putting on gas masks. They looked back, looked west down Queen, and noticed that the protesters were marching back East. There appeared to be police officers fighting with protesters, so the police told us to head north immediately, or we would be collateral damage. He wasn't being threatening; just acknowledging a reality.

At this point, we left. As we walked north, we bumped into someone who had come from further west on Queen West. He informed us that rioters were breaking every window in sight. We then turned east to try to get far enough away from the protests to head back south to where we were staying. The protests seemed to follow us in lockstep each time we went South. It turns out that many of the protesters who were funelled west simply headed south, and turned back east to avoid the police. Hence the riot police with gas masks a block south.


3:48 PM

We eventually ended up walking south on Church. As we crossed King Street, we saw a cloud of smoke. It appeared too dark to be tear gas.









3:48 PM

It turns out the smoke was coming from a burning car in the middle of the road. We later found out it was a police car set on fire by protesters with Molotov cocktails (one of at least 3). We decided it was time to get out of downtown.

I met my friend at the pub (C'est What?), and told him there was a car on fire down the street, and protesters were rapidly moving our way, leaving behind a swath of destruction. We headed a block north of Yonge and College to another bar.

After ordering a drink at Bar Volo, the owner walked up to our table, and told us to move away from the window. There were people breaking windows of shops just south on Yonge, and he didn't want his customers to get hurt. We hopped in a cab, and fled to north.

We spent the next few hours at Rebel House. Ironically, this was the launching point for one of Canada's biggest political clashes, the Upper Canada Rebellion. The irony was unintentional.


11:46 PM

We returned downtown around 11pm to have a quick drink at Duggan's, a local microbrewery. Upon leaving, downtown was once again eerily quiet. Some business owners had the foresight to board up in anticipation of the riots.








11:52 PM

We were greated by hundreds of riot police outside of our lodgings. We litterally had to be escorted accross the street. There didn't appear to be anything amiss.









12:42 AM

From the roof, we were able to discover what the police were up to: resting.















12:45 AM

More riot police arrived. They appeared to be regrouping in prepartion for more protests. The next day, we found out that hundreds of people were arrested just outside. There also appears to have been a journalist abused and detained in this flurry of arrests. I suspect we'll hear much more about this.







June 27th, 2010



1:56 PM

I decided to drive around the Queen West/Bay Street areas to survey the damage. This Bank of Montreal was one of many banks that was attacked.









2:09 PM

After being questioned by police, we resumed photographing. Given that I was driving around taking photos, this was unsurprising.

The CIBC accross the street from Bank of Montreal was another of the Banks smashed in. It surprised me how quick the vandalized establishments were boarded up. No remaining shattered glass visible from the road.




2:11 PM

The Gap was one of the predictable targets for protesters. There were dozens of less prominent shops that were also vandalized.










2:12 PM

Starbucks. The absolute favorite target of anti-corporate vandals.











2:13 PM

The vandals also targetted the CTV news building, as well as several media vehicles. Their commitment to free speech seemed questionable by this point.









2:13 PM

A window at police headquarters broken during the riots.











2:14 PM

Yet another CIBC location with broken windows.












2:15 PM

I continued along Queen Street, passing by the Four Seasons Centre, home of the Canadian Opera Company. My favorite building in the city. As I crossed the intersection, I heard a loud rumble. Yet another protest march coming down Queen Street, following a police car. I quickly pulled a U-turn, and headed north on University. I kept going, and exited the city.






There are plenty of lessons that one might learn from this experience. This was my second G20, after last year's meeting in Pittsburgh. This was far more chaotic, possibly even worse than the Seattle riots in '99. The lesson that I want to impart is simple: major political meetings should never be held in large cities. They are a magnet for violent protesters, and endanger local residents. The destruction, and the billion dollar security tab will hopefully make politicians think twice about foisting these events upon major cities. Like I said before the meeting, it should have stayed in Huntsville, a small tourist town outside of the city where it was initially supposed to take place. This is my personal opinion. You decide.

My Article on The G-20 Summit at Newgeography.com

Check out my article on the costs of the upcoming G-20 Conference in New Geography, the premier online journal of urban issues.

Toronto's G-20 Conference: Financial Boon or Boondoggle?

Ever since the ill fated 1999 WTO meeting in Seattle, there has been some debate over the merits of hosting meetings of international organizations in major cities. While some argue that there are economic spin offs from the tourism generated by these conferences, others argue that the security costs far outweigh the benefits. In the lead up to the G-20 meeting in Toronto, there has been a flurry of controversy over the price tag for conference security. The combined security tab for the G-8 and G-20 could end up as high as $900 million dollars. Unfortunately, there has been little discussion about whether the economic spin offs could justify this cost. It seems unlikely, but it would be unfair to jump to any conclusions without looking at the facts.

The tourism industry does have the potential to reap some gains from the G20. The best case scenario for the industry would see 50,000 rooms booked for the conference. Unsurprisingly, Greater Toronto Hotel Association Terry Mundell is excited. "It's a good news story for us," he claims. If we assume (optimistically) that each room goes for $300/night, the hotel industry could make $30 million out of the deal. On top of this, people will obviously be spending money while they're in town. Let's assume that these 50 thousand people consume 4 meals/day at $100/person. This would be a cool $40 million for the restaurant industry. Maybe these folks will have a few drinks. Let's budget in $100/night. After all, these are affluent folks. That's $10 million for the bars. Maybe a few souvenirs to bring back for the kids? Let's say another $10 million. And what if they need some Tylenol? Toothbrushes? Toss in another $10 million. We're up to about $100 million in direct economic benefits. But wait, people need to get to Toronto, and to get around the city. We'll be generous and throw in $100 million for airfare. Add to that $100/day in cabs, and we have another $10 million. This brings the grand total to $210 million. Far from negligible. Unfortunately, that's about double the official estimate of $100 million. Like I said, this is a best case scenario.




On the cost side of the ledger, it is important to note that the costs will be divided between the G-8 Conference in Huntsville, and the G-20 in Toronto. Let be extremely generous and assume it is an even split. Of the $833 million already announced, we'll say $400 million is going to the Toronto conference. This still leaves us with a shortfall of $190 million. Remember, this is an extremely optimistic scenario.

Here's the bad news: even under the optimistic scenario, we still haven't factored in opportunity costs. So far it has been confirmed that three Blue Jays games will be moved to Philadelphia, and the University of Toronto will shut down during the conference. In anticipation of former Jays star pitcher Roy Halliday's first return to Toronto, the team had budgeted for 90,000 fans to attend. At an average revenue of $39/fan, that's a loss of $3.5 million dollars. It's hard to say how many fans would have come into the city from out of town, but it wouldn't be at all unrealistic to say that the city is going to lose at very least another $3.5 million in spin offs.

Even without any similar cancellations, Seattle business managed to lose at least $10 million in revenue as a result of the WTO meeting in 1999 (not to mention the $2 million in property damage). Furthermore, if the G-20 wasn't going to be in Toronto, we don't know how many hotel rooms would have been rented out for other events, or whether the conference goers will crowd out other patrons from restaurants. This is the difficulty with these types of estimates. They take into account the benefits that we see, but not the unseen opportunity costs. It's hard to count a family that decided not to go on vacation, or someone who didn't bother going to the restaurant because it's too busy.

One might argue that the short term costs will be mitigated by long term benefits. After all, some people might like the city so much that they'll want to visit again. Perhaps some number of people will even want to move to the city. I had a similar experience during the G-20 in Pittsburgh last year (though haven't followed through). If we look at it this way, any shortfall could be seen as a tourism advertising expense. Will this pay off in the long run. Unfortunately it is impossible to tell.

So let's assume that the shortfall for the conference is $200 million dollars. That seems pretty reasonable at this point. Let's further assume that there will be a non-trivial long term tourism benefit to the city. In fact, let's assume they make it all back. I still don't buy into the idea of holding major international political conferences in major cities.




My biggest objection is the inconvenience to citizens of the city, which will likely include many people being caught up in violent protests, and police retaliation. No one should have to get tear gassed in the name of boosting tourism. I was there in Pittsburgh when stores were being smashed in, and the police were gassing protesters. Given that I was wise enough to stay away from the protests, I didn't personally witness the chaos. Having said that, there is plenty of footage showing the violent clashes between protesters and police. After Seattle, London, Pittsburgh, and many other cities where these conferences have ended violently, politicians should have learned their lesson. Forget tourism dollars. These conferences are about solving major economic problems. The G-8 meeting is being held in tiny Huntsville, where the G-20 originally was supposed to be held. That's how it should be. It's easier to import police to a small town than to evacuate the downtown of a major city. Hopefully it doesn't take another Seattle to impart this lesson to governments. It probably will.

Reflections on the G-20 Conference

I decided to go to Pittsburgh this week with a group of free marketers to protest against the protectionist measures that the Obama Administration has recently enacted. My ulterior motive was to check out the city of Pittsburgh, which has probably been the most successful rustbelt city since the decline of manufacturing in America.

The first thing I noticed when I arrived in town on Tuesday was that most of the downtown was going to be shut down for the conference as a security precaution. At first blush, this seems rather extreme. After all, in post 9-11 America, there is legitimate concern over many of the security measures that have been enacted. However, while no one likes to see legions of riot police in their cities, conferences like this attract thousands of protesters, some of which engage in violence and vandalism. This leaves the authorities caught between a rock and a hard place. On the one hand, they can sit by passively and allow the protesters to take over the city. Given the demeanor of some of the protesters, such as one anarchist who attempted to spit at me because of my sign (though she missed), this seems untenable. On the other hand, the police can do as they did, and lock down the city. This is also unfortunate, especially when they are forced to gas protesters. When the police are forced to resort to crowd control tactics in an urban setting, there are bound to be innocent bystanders affected.

The problem isn't necessarily that the police are given too much power in these situations, but rather that they shouldn't allow these situations to develop in the first place. There is no good reason why conferences like the G-20 should be held in major cities. Global trade meetings invariably bring out militant protesters. The only way to mitigate the effects of the necessary security precautions is to hold these meetings in remote location, as is typically done for G-8 meetings. Not only would that reduce the possibility of violent confrontations, but it would also prevent local businesses from being forced to shut down, or even potentially fall prey to vandalism. This was the case with the Rite Aid down the street from my hotel. I visited it on Wednesday night, and it was subsequently smashed in by protesters on Thursday.

The unfortunate reality is politicians are not much concerned with the tangible and intangible costs of hosting such meetings. After all, the federal government is on the hook for security costs at the G-20. Meanwhile, local politicians get to feel good about showing the world just how lovely their city is. Luckily for the residents of Pittsburgh, the inconveniences they suffered pale in comparison to the anarchy that prevailed in Seattle during the WTO conference in 1999. While governments can't prevent unruly protesters, the least they could do is to refrain from luring them to major cities.